RBA holds at 4.35% again. What that means for Hobart landlords heading into spring

At its August 2026 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.35% for the second consecutive time. The decision was unanimous, and 92% of economists surveyed by Finder predicted it. What made the decision notable was not the result itself, but what the Board kept open. Governor Michele Bullock confirmed that both a hold and a rate hike were actively considered, not just a hold versus a cut. The Board stated it remains willing to raise rates again if price pressures prove more persistent than expected.

According to the RBA's August Statement on Monetary Policy, underlying inflation is forecast to remain above 3% until mid-2027, and the RBA does not expect inflation to return sustainably to the midpoint of its 2 to 3% target band until late 2027. That timeline shapes everything that follows.

This is not the relief that was expected this time last year

A year ago, the picture looked quite different. The RBA cut rates three times across 2025, moving the cash rate from 4.10% in February down to a low of 3.60% by August. Then inflation re-accelerated. Three hikes followed in early 2026, returning the rate to 4.35%, matching the previous peak reached in November 2023.

For landlords who restructured debt or set rental budgets during that cut cycle, borrowing costs are now back at that prior peak. According to rate forecasts compiled by Canstar, all four major Australian banks expect the first rate cut to arrive in 2027, not 2026. Commonwealth Bank forecasts cuts in May and August 2027. NAB, ANZ and Westpac each place their earliest forecast cut in the second half of 2027. None forecast any movement before then.

That is a bank consensus reading of the RBA's language and inflation forecasts, not a formal commitment from the RBA. Conditions could shift. But it is the working assumption of Australia's four largest mortgage lenders, and it is a reasonable frame for any property owner carrying variable-rate debt.

One more thing worth knowing: lenders make their own decisions about how much of any eventual RBA cut to pass on. A 25 basis point reduction from the RBA does not automatically translate to the same reduction in variable mortgage rates.

The next RBA board meeting is scheduled for 29 September 2026.

What Hobart's rental market looks like right now

Hobart's rental conditions are unusually tight. According to PRD Real Estate's Hobart Market Update for the first half of 2026, the vacancy rate sat at 0.7% as at December 2025, well below the 3.0% level associated with a balanced rental market. Rental listing volumes fell 9.9% in Q4 2025 alone, compressing supply further in a market where demand has held firm. The median weekly house rent reached $650 as at Q4 2025, up 4.8% year-on-year.

For property owners, that combination has supported rental income growth. But tight conditions driven by constrained supply are more fragile than those driven by strong demand alone. Any meaningful increase in supply, or a softening in employment conditions, could change the picture well before a rate cut arrives.

If you are weighing whether to hold, sell or adjust your rental approach ahead of spring, a free rental appraisal is a useful place to start. Knowing where your property sits in the current market takes the conversation from abstract to specific.

Spring listings are rising into a compressed market

The spring selling season typically lifts both listing volumes and buyer activity. In 2026, it arrives into a market where borrowing capacity is under pressure. The same PRD report recorded Hobart's median house price at $1,012,500 in Q4 2025, a 4.7% annual increase. That is a solid result. The question heading into spring is how buyer behaviour adjusts when rate relief is firmly twelve months away by every major bank's forecast.

More supply entering a market where affordability is stretched can moderate prices and extend time-on-market. That does not make spring the wrong time to sell. It does make campaign quality and realistic pricing more consequential than they would be in a falling-rate environment.

If you are considering a sale and want a clear view of what your property is likely to achieve in the current market, a free appraisal is a good place to start that conversation.

We are happy to talk through how any of this applies to your property specifically.