Rates held, but a hike is still on the table before October

The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August 2026, the second consecutive hold after three rises earlier in the year. For Hobart property owners, that pause might feel like relief. It is worth reading more carefully.

Governor Bullock was direct at the post-meeting press conference: the board only considered holding or hiking. Cutting rates was not on the agenda. Her words, as reported by ABC News: "The board isn't ruling out there may be a need for further interest rate rises." The RBA's official statement added that it "will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise."

That is a hold, not a pivot.

How we got here

The 4.35% rate is the result of three consecutive hikes in 2026, each of 25 basis points, delivered in February, March, and May. The May hike, confirmed in RBA media release mr-26-12, was carried 8 votes to 1. The rate now matches the prior peak from the 2022 to 2024 tightening cycle.

Annual headline inflation sat at 3.5% in July 2026, and trimmed mean (underlying) inflation held at 3.6%, according to ABC News. Both figures sit above the RBA's 2 to 3% target band. The board's own baseline forecast has underlying inflation returning to the 2.5% midpoint of that band by early 2028.

Bullock acknowledged that headline inflation cooled in the June quarter, coming in nearly a percentage point below the RBA's own forecast. She also confirmed that falling property prices, which declined more than the bank anticipated, were not the reason the board chose to hold. The concern keeping rates elevated is inflation, particularly upside risks from Middle East conflict and other geopolitical factors.

What happens on 29 September

The next cash rate decision is due at 2:30 PM on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, after a board meeting across 28 to 29 September.

The four major banks are split. NAB is forecasting a 25 basis point hike at the September meeting, which would lift the rate to 4.60%, making it the first of the majors to name September specifically, according to post-August forecasts published by Aussie.com.au. ANZ and CBA both forecast a hike in November, with CBA flagging September as a secondary risk. Westpac forecasts no further hike and expects cuts to begin in 2027. Market pricing as at 11 August put a 50% probability on a hike by November 2026, rising to 78% by February 2027.

For Hobart landlords carrying investment loans on variable rates, the practical question is straightforward: the board has already delivered 75 basis points in hikes across three meetings this year. Working out what another 25 basis points would mean for your monthly holding costs before the September 29 announcement is more useful than reacting to the decision afterwards.

The RBA also noted at the August meeting that declining property values are a downside risk it is watching. For investment property owners in Hobart, softer asset values and higher debt-servicing costs are arriving at the same time. Anyone weighing whether to hold, sell, or refinance an investment property has a tighter decision window than the calendar might suggest.

If you'd like to work through the numbers before the September decision, a rental appraisal or a conversation about what a sale might look like is a good place to start.